Analysis: Great danger awaits if wave of violence spreads substantially into Gaza

The top echelon of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and even more so the leadership of the IDF, seems to have little impact and say on the government’s strategic decision making with regard to the current Palestinian rebellion.

 

This is evident in the fact that the cabinet has not been listening to the defense echelon’s advice to revive peace talks in order to sow hopes among the Palestinians. Such advice has been imparted in cabinet sessions and briefings with the media.

 

Yet, they can influence the situation by reducing violence and tension with proper tactical management of the current crisis. The great danger is that the violence will spread substantially into Gaza and the security forces will be challenged from all fronts: in the West Bank, Jerusalem, inside Israel and in the South.

 

The South is on the verge of an explosion, yet the worst has not yet been seen. The events over the weekend on the Gaza border passed with relative quiet, despite the fact that 10 Gazans were killed by IDF fire.

 

On Friday, there was a demonstration of some 3,000 Palestinians, mostly young people, in Gaza opposite of Kibbut Nahal Oz. They tried to burst through one of the gates, threw a grenade and threw fireworks. Despite the fact that the IDF has experienced similar incidents in the past, even if not to the same degree, for some reason, this time it responded hysterically. Soldiers employed the use of live fire on a large scale and killed seven Palestinians and wounded dozens more. It was an Islamic Jihad demonstration. Hamas police officers, who were present in order to preserve order and who usually prevent people from massing near the border, did not interfere this time.

 

The IDF feared that because of the large number of deaths, Hamas would respond with rocket fire on Israel or would enable Islamic Jihad or one of the Salafi groups to do so. This didn’t happen. On Friday night, after midnight, one rocket was fired that exploded in open territory, failing to cause damage or injuries. The IDF did not respond.

 

On Saturday, again there were protests and three Palestinians were killed after which a few rockets were fired at Israel, one of which was intercepted by Iron Dome and the rest of which fell in Gazan territory. The IAF responded to these attacks like it usually does in similar instances, attacking two weapons warehouses, killing a woman and leaving a child missing.

 

The force operating on the Gaza border is a paratroopers unit which is supposed to be highly skilled. They may have been acting on the orders of their commanders. If so, the IDF should carry out a thorough probe on regulations and the adherence to them.

 

For the IDF’s senior command, there is a supreme interest in preventing a deterioration in the Palestinian situation. As of now, the violence which began on October 1, with the murder of Eitam and Naama Henkin, has centered in the West Bank, Jerusalem and has “trickled” – with knife attacks – into Israel within the Green Line. This is where the attention of the Israeli public and media is turned as well. The violent incidents – the “popular outburst” (huba in Arabic) is what Palestinians are calling the current wave of violence – has not yet expanded to Gaza. Gaza, for now, is showing restraint. The incident on Friday could have brought a descent into violence including rocket attacks as revenge for the killing of the young Gazans, IAF responses and eventually to another war between Israel and Gaza.

 

Read More: Analysis: Great danger awaits if wave of violence spreads substantially into Gaza – Arab-Israeli Conflict – Jerusalem Post